The science of estimating the size of the American radio audience is getting a lot more complex and interesting, or a lot scarier, depending on your perspective.
Arbitron, the company with a monopoly on measuring our listening habits, is rolling out its Portable People Meter, or as they said at its Washington, D.C. launch this morning "technology is catching up with reality."
Here's how it works currently: a couple of thousand people, a cross section of life in the DC area, dutifully fill out diaries telling researchers what they listen to, and when, for the honor of being a good media citizen plus a few bucks in change. The diaries are collated and the results extrapolated to estimate how many people listen to which station, which program, etc, and for how long. Program Directors make scheduling decisions based (partly) on the data and how it trends over time. The biggest problem: people forget or exaggerate their listening habits.
Under the new system, panelists (1300 of them in the DC area) will wear electronic devices about their persons (apparently you will be able to get a Redskins logo on yours) which will beam information back ultimately to Arbitron HQ, telling the analysts exactly what the wearers are listening to, even when they're asleep. The problem here: dropping the thing down the lavatory by accident, or walking into your local CVS and being exposed on the PA system to a music station you'd never choose for yourself. In other words, it measures hearing, not active listening, which is what the public radio audience does best.
There will be much more data for us to analyze, broken down by the minutes, if necessary. So, in theory, we should be able to make quicker, and more accurate scheduling decisions to please the WAMU audience. It measures both analogue and HD stations, web streams, podcasts, the whole nine yards, unlike the diaries which only estimated old-fashioned radio. And because the numbers will be much more specific, a boring talk show guest could be denied a repeat invitation on the basis of the audience numbers for his particular appearance.
At this morning's launch, the new methodology came with its own corporate buzz-language. The phrase "quarterly characteristic update" was new to me but I promised to remember it. Apparently, when a panelist goes AWOL, Arbitron provides counseling to assist the individual in getting back on the wagon (or, in this case, back listening to Diane). "Zero sales situations" was another memorable catch-phrase which sent a visible tingle down the spine of my colleague Anthony Hayes, WAMU's Director of Corporate Marketing, who sat next to me. Presumably it means nada in the door dollar-wise if the agencies who buy airtime see listener levels falling. The forced CVS listening, by the way, is called "incidental cume", which sounds more like something I might request at the pharmacy counter, but never mind.
Results in the early adopter markets appear consistent. There are bigger overall listening numbers for many commercial and public stations, but most folks seem to be listening for a shorter time than was previously thought. In New York, some of the stations with predominantly African American or Hispanic audiences say they're being short-changed by the new data and are taking Arbitron to court.
Meantime, a questionable change is the decision to measure the listening habits of everyone over six years of age, bringing the Barbie Doll target market into play. Under the old system, the lowest age was twelve. As an Arbitron Vice President said from the platform this morning, the ad agencies want to "find ways to monetize kids."
Welcome to my new world.
